A large £2.2k bet on the Polymarket platform suggests there is only around a 2% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have resigned by June 15, according to the market's implied probability.
The trade, made by an account named 'Blaring-Backdrop', closed a position betting that Starmer would still be in office on that date. This indicates the market sees a high likelihood of the PM remaining in Downing Street past the mid-June deadline.