PM Starmer's expected resignation date brought forward by 2 days to 19 August 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

In a surprise development, the expected resignation date of Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been brought forward by 2 days to 19 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes amid ongoing speculation about Starmer's political future. The change suggests a ~86% chance that the PM will step down by the new date of 19 August.