The implied resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer has shifted 9 days earlier, from 4 October 2026 to 25 September 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting data.
The change in expected exit date suggests the market believes there is now an ~86% chance Starmer will have resigned or been ousted as Labour leader and PM by 25 September 2026, rather than the previous ~86% probability of him leaving office by 4 October.