The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 26 have risen to around 91%, up from ~85% previously. This represents a 6 percentage point shift in the market's assessment of the likelihood of Starmer's resignation announcement by that date.
Polymarket, a leading prediction market, has seen a significant change in the implied probability of Starmer's departure as Labour leader and Prime Minister. The increase in the market's estimate suggests growing speculation about the stability of Starmer's position in the coming weeks.