Odds shorten on PM Starmer resigning by June 22, market signals ~63% chance

· market re-priced ·June 22

Briefing

The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 22 have shortened, with Polymarket markets now signalling around a ~63% chance of his departure by that date.

The shift represents a 6 percentage point increase in the implied probability, up from ~57% previously. The change suggests growing market sentiment that Starmer may step down as Labour leader and PM in the coming weeks.