The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 22 have risen sharply, according to Polymarket data. The implied probability has shifted from ~57% to ~65%, a rise of 8 percentage points.
The change in odds suggests growing uncertainty over Starmer's political future, as the PM faces mounting pressure from within his own party. Analysts are closely watching the Polymarket market for clues on Starmer's prospects of surviving in Number 10.