PM Starmer's expected resignation date moves forward by 5 days to 5 Oct 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

In a surprise development, the expected resignation date of Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been moved forward by 5 days to 5 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift comes as the implied probability of Starmer resigning by that date has risen to ~86%, up from ~82% previously. Analysts say the change reflects growing political pressure on the PM to step down before the next general election.