The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by July 31 have risen to around 34% on Polymarket, up from 28% previously. This represents a 6 percentage point increase in the market's estimation of the likelihood of Starmer's departure before the end of the month.
The shift in odds comes amid ongoing scrutiny of Starmer's leadership, though no specific events have been reported that would directly impact his position. Starmer has so far resisted calls to step down, but the rising Polymarket odds suggest growing uncertainty over his political future.