The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in office by June 22 have risen to around 74%, up from 69% previously, according to Polymarket data. This represents a 5 percentage point increase in the implied probability of Starmer still being PM on that date.
The shift in market sentiment suggests increased confidence that Starmer will survive as Labour leader past the June 22 deadline, though the outcome remains highly uncertain with a ~26% chance he could depart before then.