The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has shifted earlier by 5 days, from 16 October 2026 to 12 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket predictions.
This suggests the probability of Starmer remaining PM by the original 16 October date has fallen to ~86%, down from the previous estimate. The new 12 October date is now seen as the more likely outcome for when the Prime Minister will step down.