PM Starmer's odds of remaining in office by July 31 fall by 12 points to ~28%

· market re-priced ·July 31

Briefing

A new Polymarket bet suggests the odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in office by July 31 have fallen by 12 percentage points to around 28%. The shift comes as speculation continues over Starmer's political future.

The July 31 market is seen as a key test for the PM, with the implied probability of him still being in power on that date dropping from 40% to 28% in recent trading.

Polymarket is a popular prediction market platform, and bets placed there are being closely watched for signals on the PM's standing.