PM Starmer's resignation date pushed back by 6 days to 16 Oct 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been pushed back by 6 days, from 11 October to 16 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting data.

The shift in the implied resignation date suggests the probability of Starmer remaining as PM on that date has increased to ~86%, up from the previous estimate.