The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been pushed back by around 3 weeks, according to the latest betting on Polymarket. The date has shifted from 21 September to 11 October, a delay of approximately 20 days.
The shift in the implied exit date suggests the market now sees a ~86% chance that Starmer will still be PM on 11 October, up from a ~86% chance of him resigning by 21 September previously.
This could indicate growing confidence in Starmer's political position, though the situation remains highly uncertain with over 4 years until the next general election.