The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 10 days, from 11 Aug 2026 to 2 Aug 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.
The shift in the implied resignation date suggests a growing likelihood that Keir Starmer will step down as Labour leader and PM earlier than previously expected, though the exact timing remains uncertain.
Polymarket traders currently see around ~86% probability that Starmer will have resigned by the new 2 Aug 2026 date.