PM Starmer's resignation date moves 2 days earlier to 12 October 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 2 days, from 14 October 2026 to 12 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting data.

The shift in the implied resignation date suggests growing market expectations of an earlier-than-expected departure for PM Starmer, though the reasons behind this move remain unclear.