PM Starmer's resignation now expected 1 day earlier, by 12 Sept 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has shifted 1 day earlier, from 13 September 2026 to 12 September 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

This change in the implied resignation date comes amid ongoing political uncertainty around Starmer's leadership. The ~86% chance of Starmer resigning by the new date of 12 September 2026 suggests the PM's position remains precarious.