PM Starmer's resignation date pushed back to 15 Oct, Polymarket bets show

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has been pushed back by 3 days, from 12 October 2026 to 15 October 2026, according to betting markets on Polymarket.

The shift in the implied resignation date suggests a ~86% chance that Starmer will still be Prime Minister on 15 October, up from a ~86% chance he would be gone by 12 October.