PM Starmer's resignation date pushed back by one day to 7 October 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been pushed back by one day, from 6 October 2026 to 7 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data. The shift in the implied resignation date comes as the political situation around Starmer's leadership continues to evolve.

Polymarket traders now see around a ~86% chance that Starmer will step down as PM by the new date of 7 October 2026, up slightly from the previous ~86% probability of his resignation by 6 October.