A large £1,800 bet has been placed on Polymarket that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave Downing Street by June 22, according to market data. The trade implies around an 84% chance that Starmer's resignation will be announced by that date.
The Polymarket market is now pricing in a high likelihood of Starmer's exit within the next few months. Traders appear increasingly confident the PM will not survive until the end of the year in office.