A Polymarket bet on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office by June 30 has seen the 'Yes' (Starmer remaining PM) price rise from ~71% to ~86%, a 5 percentage point increase.
The shift in market odds suggests increased confidence that Starmer will survive as PM through the end of June. The £1,000 Polymarket bet now implies an ~86% chance of Starmer remaining in Downing Street on that date.