Keir Starmer's expected resignation date has shifted £1k earlier to 28 July 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting data. The Prime Minister's resignation was previously expected on 4 August 2026, but the market now prices it at around ~86% likely to happen by the end of July.
The change comes as the Labour leadership faces growing pressure, with the party's poll numbers lagging behind the Conservatives. Starmer has so far resisted calls to step down, but the shifting Polymarket odds suggest growing doubts about his ability to lead the party to the next general election.