PM Starmer's resignation date moves £2k earlier to 4 Aug 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has moved forward by 2 days to 4 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting data.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes as markets price in an ~86% chance of Starmer departing Downing Street by the new earlier date.