The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in office by June 30 have slipped by 6 percentage points, from ~35% to ~29%, according to the latest Polymarket betting data.
The drop in Starmer's implied probability of survival suggests growing doubts about the PM's ability to cling to power in the coming months. However, the ~86% chance he is still in No. 10 by the end of the year remains largely unchanged.