PM Starmer's resignation odds shorten as Polymarket bettors see earlier exit

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Keir Starmer's odds of remaining as Prime Minister have shortened, with Polymarket bettors now seeing a greater chance of his resignation being announced by ~1 Oct 2026 rather than the previous 7 Oct 2026 date.

The shift comes as the implied probability of Starmer's exit by the earlier date has risen to around 86%, up from ~80% previously. Traders have placed over £1k in bets on the Polymarket platform regarding the Prime Minister's future.