PM Starmer's expected resignation date pushed back by 10 days, Polymarket shows

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Keir Starmer's expected resignation as Prime Minister has been pushed back by 10 days, according to the Polymarket prediction market. The resignation date has shifted from 29 October 2026 to 7 November 2026, reflecting a ~86% chance Starmer will still be PM on that later date.

The change comes as Starmer faces growing pressure from within his own party, with a number of Labour MPs publicly calling for him to step down. However, the Prime Minister has vowed to continue in his role despite the internal rebellion.