PM Starmer's resignation now expected by 1 November, over a month later than predicted

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has been pushed back by over a month, from 30 September 2026 to 1 November 2026, according to the latest Polymarket predictions.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes as Starmer's position has come under increasing scrutiny in recent weeks. The new ~86% probability of Starmer remaining PM until 1 November suggests the Labour leader may be able to weather the current political storm.