PM Starmer's odds of surviving until August 31 rise to ~98%

· market re-priced ·August 31

Briefing

A Polymarket prediction market on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office by August 31 has seen the 'Yes' (resignation) outcome's odds drop from ~93% to ~98%, a 5 percentage point shift.

The £1,000 bet now indicates an ~98% chance that Starmer will remain Prime Minister on August 31, up from ~93% previously. This suggests increased confidence in Starmer's political survival in the coming months.