The probability that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have left office by June 22 has risen from ~74% to ~79%, according to Polymarket data. The 5 percentage point increase in the implied exit likelihood comes amid ongoing political uncertainty surrounding the PM.
Starmer's future remains a key focus for political bettors, with a £1,000 Polymarket contract suggesting there is now around an 80% chance he will no longer be PM by the end of next month.
The shifting market odds reflect the fluid situation facing the Labour government, though Starmer has so far resisted calls from some within his party to step down.