A large £5,425 bet has been placed on Polymarket that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office by June 15, implying just a ~2% chance he resigns before that date.
The trade suggests Starmer is expected to remain PM, with the market pricing in a 98% probability he is still in power on June 15. The £5.4k stake is one of the largest wagers seen on the Starmer premiership.