PM Starmer's resignation now expected on 16 Oct, two days later

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date when Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to announce his resignation has been pushed back by two days, from 14 Oct to 16 Oct, according to the latest market data.

The shift in the implied resignation date suggests that Starmer's position has become slightly more secure, with the probability of him remaining PM by that date rising to ~86%.