The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 30 have risen sharply, according to Polymarket data. The probability of Starmer leaving office by that date has increased from ~85% to ~91%, a 6 percentage point shift.
The rising odds come amid growing speculation about Starmer's political future. The Prime Minister has faced a series of challenges in recent months, with his leadership under increasing scrutiny from within the Labour Party and the wider public.