PM Starmer's resignation date moves forward by 2 days to 21 Aug 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 2 days, according to the latest Polymarket data. Keir Starmer is now projected to step down as Labour leader on 21 August 2026, ~86% chance.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes as the political landscape continues to evolve. Starmer's future as PM remains uncertain, with the Polymarket market reflecting the volatility of the situation.