PM Starmer's resignation date moves 3 days earlier to 21 Aug 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been moved forward by 3 days, according to the latest Polymarket data. Starmer is now projected to step down as PM on 21 August 2026, around ~86% probability.

The shift comes as markets adjust their expectations around Starmer's future. The new date represents a significant change from the previous forecast of 24 August 2026.