PM Starmer's resignation date moves up by 2 days to 14 Aug 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has moved up by 2 days, from 17 August 2026 to 14 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes as the probability of Starmer stepping down by the new date of 14 August 2026 is estimated to be around ~86%, up from ~84% previously.