PM Starmer's resignation date brought forward by 2 days to 19 August 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has been moved forward by 2 days to 19 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The change comes as markets now imply an ~86% chance that Starmer will announce his resignation by that date, up from the previous estimate of 19 August 2026.