The implied resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer has moved 3 days earlier to 17 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting. This suggests the PM's exit from Downing Street may come sooner than previously expected.
The shift in the expected resignation date comes as markets price in a ~86% chance Starmer will no longer be PM by the new 17 Aug 2026 deadline. Traders are increasingly betting the Labour leader will depart Downing Street in the coming weeks or months.