The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 1 day, from 15 Aug 2026 to 14 Aug 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data. This suggests the odds of Starmer resigning by that date have increased to around ~86%.
The shift in the implied resignation date comes as markets continue to closely track the political situation around the Prime Minister's future. Starmer has faced growing pressure from within his own party in recent weeks, though he has so far resisted calls to step down.