PM Starmer's expected resignation date pushed back by 2 days to 19 August

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The expected resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been pushed back by 2 days, according to Polymarket data. The new expected resignation date is now 19 August 2026, up from the previous date of 17 August.

The shift in the expected resignation date comes as Starmer's position as Labour leader continues to be scrutinized. Polymarket traders currently estimate there is an ~86% chance Starmer will have resigned by the new 19 August date.