PM Starmer's resignation date moves up by 2 days to 17 August 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 2 days, from 19 August 2026 to 17 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data. This shifts the odds of Starmer remaining PM on that date to ~86%.

The change in the implied resignation date comes as Starmer faces growing pressure from within his own party, with the number of Labour MPs publicly demanding he step down now reaching the high hundreds.