The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in office by the end of 2022 have risen to around 81%, up from 75% previously. This represents a 6 percentage point increase in the probability that Starmer will still be PM on December 31st.
The shift in market odds comes as the Prime Minister faces ongoing pressure from some Labour MPs, though the party leadership appears to be holding firm. Starmer has vowed to continue in his role despite the internal opposition.