PM Starmer's resignation date moves up by 1 day to 16 September 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 1 day, from 18 September 2026 to 16 September 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The market is now pricing in an ~86% chance that Starmer will step down as PM by the new date of 16 September 2026.