PM Starmer's resignation date shifts to 16 September 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to announce his resignation has been pushed back by one day, from 15 September 2026 to 16 September 2026. This follows a shift in market expectations on Polymarket.

The Polymarket contract tracking Starmer's resignation now indicates an ~86% chance he will still be PM on 16 September 2026, up from the previous ~86% chance he would depart by 15 September.