Polymarket odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by July 31 have risen from ~35% to ~40%, a 5 percentage point increase. The rising probability of Starmer's exit ahead of the key deadline has sparked renewed speculation about his political future.
The shift in market sentiment comes as the Prime Minister faces growing pressure from within his own party. Starmer has vowed to remain in office, but the latest Polymarket data suggests his grip on power may be weakening with time running out before the end-of-July deadline.