PM Starmer's resignation date moves up by 4 days to 11 September 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's resignation date has been brought forward by 4 days, from 15 September 2026 to 11 September 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting data.

This suggests the market now believes there is an increased likelihood of Keir Starmer stepping down as PM before the middle of September 2026, around ~86% probability.