The betting market on when Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign has shifted, with the implied exit date now ~86% likely to be by 16 August 2026 - 3 days later than previously expected.
The change reflects new market data and analysis, though the overall odds of Starmer resigning by the end of his first term remain high. Polymarket users are now betting the PM will step down in mid-August 2026 rather than earlier that month.