A large £915 Polymarket bet has been placed suggesting around a ~2% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have resigned by June 15. The trade, made by user 'Blaring-Backdrop', closed a position betting on Starmer still being in office on that date.
The low implied probability of Starmer's exit by mid-June comes as the Labour leader faces growing pressure from within his own party. However, the Polymarket data indicates the political betting markets see a resignation before then as highly unlikely at this stage.