PM Starmer's resignation date moves up by 1 day to 4 Aug 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation date has been brought forward by 1 day, from 5 Aug 2026 to 4 Aug 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift in the implied resignation date suggests the market now sees a ~86% chance Starmer will step down as PM by 4 Aug 2026.