PM Starmer's resignation date moves 2 days earlier to 8 August 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

In a surprise development, Polymarket traders have adjusted the implied resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer from 10 August 2026 to 8 August 2026 - a shift of 2 days earlier.

The change suggests around ~86% probability that Starmer will have stepped down as PM by the new date of 8 August 2026, according to the Polymarket prediction market. No further details are available on the reasons behind this shift in expectations.