The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by 31 December have shortened to ~87%, up from ~81% previously. The shift represents a 6 percentage point increase in the implied probability of Starmer's resignation before the new year.
Polymarket, the prediction market tracking Starmer's future, has seen a significant move in the odds of the PM stepping down in the coming weeks. The latest data suggests the chances of Starmer remaining in office past 31 December have diminished.