The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 30 have shifted on Polymarket, falling from ~29% to ~23% - a 6 percentage point drop.
The change suggests the market now sees Starmer as less likely to step down as PM before the end of June. A £1k Polymarket bet on Starmer remaining in office on July 1 would currently pay out around £4.3k.